Job-creation weakens, but unemployment rate down

Posted by richrobinson 12 years ago to The Gulch: General
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I guess we are stuck with this anemic economy for a while. Its not getting better but there is no sign of policy changes.
SOURCE URL: http://www.cnbc.com/id/101131915


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  • Posted by $ johnrobert2 12 years ago
    This is worse than 'stagflation'. We are headed one for two, which is a net loss. Time to start going back to doing it the old fashioned way.
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    • Posted by 12 years ago
      5 years and they won't admit what they are doing is not working. Very frustrating!
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      • Posted by $ winterwind 12 years ago
        <caveat> "they" and "them" do not belong exclusively to one political party or organization. They are united in a way of looking at the world and thinking about it.

        You want them to admit they're wrong and we're right? If that were true the next logical step would be to fold their tents and steal away in the night, and no way are they leaving the trough.
        A lovely thought, though....
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  • Posted by CircuitGuy 12 years ago
    Gov't policy is not responsible for the economy. This is the normal economic cycle. There's also a slow revolution happening in automation and trade that's shifting the nature of work.

    We were facing a failure of the banking system five years ago. It wasn't caused by President Bush. Gov't meddling in the RE market by tacitly securing mortgage-backed securities and promoting "home ownership" played only a small role.

    Now the economy is expanding. It's good but not great, which is not a bad thing; we don't want speculative bubbles. The stimuli, bailouts, and QE, which happened during Bush and Obama, helped mitigate the recession but at a high price. The increased borrowing just pushed off the problem, mitigating the recession at the price of lower growth.

    There's a whole industry of people aimed at making people think gov't policy drives the economy. It's really the little decisions we make to find a potential client and show them a solution and then to hire people and get them energized to work on that solution.

    On that though, I'd better go back to making the economy happen. :)
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    • Posted by ObjectiveAnalyst 12 years ago
      Wow CircuitGuy! I love your optimism. Gov't policy may not drive the economy, depending on how you define it. But it sure is capable of putting up speed bumps.
      Regards,
      O.A.
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      • Posted by CircuitGuy 12 years ago
        Yes, I agree, but I don't think it's as powerful as it thinks it is. It can't keep willing buyers and sellers apart, no matter how hard it tries. Yes, it puts a dent in drugs, prostitution, and to a lesser extent illegal immigration. They'd have you believe they have their finger in the dike. I wouldn't be surprise if they ignored those things altogether and little changed. Gov't and bankers are not as powerful as they think they are.
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        • Posted by Mitch 12 years ago
          What about health care? The government is meddling with it right now, transforming it from a free market enterprise into a government entitlement. How does innovation happen when business are not allowed to charge a rate in which the market will pay. We are headed to a single payer system, it’s no secret; just about everyone public official on the left has publicly stated that is a preferable solution to the ACA.
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          • Posted by CircuitGuy 12 years ago
            This doesn't stop people from buying and selling medicine. It unfortunately stops me from buying the insurance plan I want, though. Even if it did go to a massive Medicare plan for everyone, not just the elderly, that doesn't mean there are no market for private healthcare.
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            • Posted by Rocky_Road 12 years ago
              By definition, there can't be any private health care under a single payer system.

              Look to the Canadian health system, to see what happens to you if you try to pay for your health care out of pocket....
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            • Posted by Mitch 12 years ago
              I guess a better way to say what I want to say is that if we tax the innovators and the creators, we lose. The medical device tax is major deterrent, if the market will not bear the additional costs. The government gets there piece not matter what and the market for the new cutting edge device has a maximum value in the market. The government is forcing a 20% (I think its 20%) hair cut on all innovators. This will slow the rate of innovation and slow the economy down. The ACA has so many examples of this that it makes my head spin.
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              • Posted by CircuitGuy 12 years ago
                I agree with this analysis for consumers who use compliant plans to pay for most of their expenses. Some consumers will supplement and purchase things on their own, just as they do now.

                When my wife was expecting a baby, her friend's doctor told her she could only have one ultrasound. We thought this was a medical issue. It turns out her plan only _paid_ for that much, but she could have as many as she wanted. We were not going to meet our deductible, so our plan's opinion didn't affect us at all. We still have a similar plan with a similar deductible. We still save the max amount in an HSA each year, knowing there are expensive treatments out there they we may one-day need. The only way it affects us is our income taxes went up, but probably not much for 2013 b/c it's a lousy year for us compared to 2012. I don't see how what the gov't's doing matters. People still give us money for circuits and legal help. We still hand that money to local doctors when we need to. We still never come close to our deductible; knock on wood. I don't see the big deal.
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    • Posted by 12 years ago
      To my way of thinking the government can get in the way or get out of the way. Our economy has done well under administrations that limited interference, reduced taxes and allowed the private sector to work. Obamacare is clearly having a negative impact on the economy. Companies are reluctant to hire and many have seen their hours cut. The energy policy of this administration is keeping oil and fuel prices higher and that cost impacts everything from manufacturing to transportation. I agree that the private sector is primarily responsible for the economy but the President and his administration can have a significant impact.
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    • Posted by Rocky_Road 12 years ago
      Trust in the government having a firm, and knowledgeable, hand on the nation's helm, does wonders for having a positive economic atmosphere.

      I have seen too many Fortune 500 CEOs publicly state that the lack of leadership, and the advent of Obamacare, has put a damper on expansion. 'Hunker down', is the name of the game...from Wall Street to Main Street.
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      • Posted by CircuitGuy 12 years ago
        The stock market is up 30% in the last year and almost 100% since 2009.

        This isn't because of Obama, politicians, or an opinion about healthcare.

        It's a herd of people solving problems and making decisions.

        This is what Thompson and friends demanded of John Galt- a firm hand on the helm. They couldn't accept that no one at the helm, contrary to intuition, is what delivers the goods.
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        • Posted by Rocky_Road 12 years ago
          Rich just posted my answer: The Feds are controlling (read: manipulating) the stock market. You are seeing what they want you to see.

          And what you are seeing is not reality.
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          • Posted by 12 years ago
            I think a correction is coming Rock. I'm not expecting the 50% or more drop some doom and gloomers expect but it could be significant. What is your take?
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            • Posted by Rocky_Road 12 years ago
              My take is that the Wall Street crowd has their finger on it's pulse, and will ride the gravy train all up to the point that they know the end of the line is approaching. They are the last to be fooled by the Fed, but they will 'play' along will the play is still good.

              There are too many correctives in place (IMHO) to go past the 50% line, but the blood letting will be fierce...and could give Obama the false flag he needs to call for martial law.

              I also believe that this administration will prop up the market, at least until the 2014 election results are in. If the Progressives gain back the full Congress, a more gentle ease back will be effected.
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        • Posted by 12 years ago
          The stock market is up because the Fed is printing money faster than Kinkos. Wall street is not the economy. The report today said the unemployment news was greeted poitively on Wall Street because they know the Fed will continue its "easing". We are in a very precarious position right now.
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          • Posted by Mitch 12 years ago
            Agreed but what happens at the end of the QE road, what causes it to stop and how does our faults economy transition back to an economy based on growth? Our weak economy is based on a government created bubble through quantitative easing.
            The way I understand quantitative easing is that we print money and inject it into the market by selling government bonds. What happens when people stop buying these bonds? The government has to pay more to sell the cheap money, correct? Which causes our money to devalue or cause inflation. The big question in my mind is why hasn't this already began?
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            • Posted by 12 years ago
              I have noticed that every time the Fed hints at ending QE the markets drop. Inflation is much higher than is being reported. With all of this money printing and defecit spending we have a very low GDP. Keynsian economics would have us believe that this is the best way to stimulate the economy. 5 years and still weak growth. The administration needs to adopt a new strategy.
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            • Posted by CircuitGuy 12 years ago
              As the gov't starts being perceived as a credit risk, the bonds will sell for less, which is the same thing as saying they pay a higher interest rate. That doesn't _cause_ money to devalue, but it puts pressure on the Fed to print money to buy the bonds. That does cause money to devalue, if they do it faster than the economy grows. Inflation makes it easier to pay down the existing debt (b/c the dollars are worth less) but harder to sell more bonds. My understanding is this hasn't happened recently b/c the dollar is seen as the best currency out there, so there's demand for it and bonds that pay in dollars as a store of value around the world. Another reason is that financial institutions lent out most of their money and stared undoing that (deleveraging) after the crisis. That took money out of the economy, offsetting what the Fed is doing. The other reason we don't having inflation is that borrowing money and increasing the money supply stimulate the economy, causing unused factory capacity to go back into service. The idea is factories are afraid to hire until people buy their stuff, but people won't buy their stuff until they see good job availability. Borrowing and expanding the money supply, can jump start things, but it can also send money to politically-connected people, cause speculative bubbles, and cause inflation if the model that would-be buyers/employers needed a jump start turns out to be wrong. It's tricky b/c for it to work you need to take away the punch bowl right as the party gets started. There's political temptation to remember the merits of loose monetary and fiscal policy during a recession but forget the other side of the coin during expansion.
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          • Posted by CircuitGuy 12 years ago
            If that were true prices of many goods and services I buy would be up. At work my suppliers would be charging more. The market would also allow me to charge higher prices. That isn't happening now.
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            • Posted by 12 years ago
              Not sure what market you are in Circuit but I have seen prices rise steadily with some up significantly. I have a small home and garden center. Fertilizer prices have risen dramatically. We sell pet food and some animal feeds. Those prices have risen sharply. We pay fuel surcharges on everything. Inflation is calculated differently today than it was years ago. Everyone I ask say they notice the increases at the grocery store.
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              • Posted by CircuitGuy 12 years ago
                I'm in Upper Midwest. I'm surprised we haven't seen inflation. If we do, I do expect nominal stock prices to rise, but I normally expect it to lag b/c of the uncertainty. I don't see any of that happening yet. It appears there was massive deleveraging and the gov't went and expanded the money supply to compensate, leaving roughly the same money chasing the same good/services. I like to see stable 1%-3%, which is what I've observed. I won't be at all shocked if inflation (i.e. inflation > 5%) starts. It hasn't happened in my world yet.
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                • Posted by 12 years ago
                  Glad to hear that Circuit. I have avoided believing the doom and gloomers that predict economic armageddon. I don't believe supporters of this administration either. more pain is on the way I think. Best of luck.
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